By Sahil Mahajan
In few days’ time, Jammu will be going to polls in the first two phases of the seven-phased phased Lok Sabha polls-2024. This is a natural consequence of the electoral democracy in India. The campaign has gone on expected lines, with battles being between the incumbent BJP MPs- Dr. Jitendra Singh from Udhampur-Doda and Jugal Kishore Sharma from Jammu- Reasi – and their Congress rivals Choudhary Lal Singh and Raman Bhalla respectively. These have been two main rival parties over the decades BJP and its original incarnation Jan Sangh used to offer symbolic challenge as long as Congress was dominating scene at the Centre. The first change occurred in 1977, when Jan Sangh as part of Janta Party won Jammu Lok Sabha seat. Its candidate was Thakur Baldev Singh, who originally hailed from Kathua district. Thereafter the changes started showing in the post 1996 polls, with Congress and BJP alternating in winning the electoral battles. And it is a coincidence that Jammu is facing the electoral competition between these two parties yet again, under the BJP rule at the Centre, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi being the universal face of the party all across the country. And, he himself came to campaign in Udhampur for two of the party candidates.
This time Jammu’s Lok Sabha electoral battle is extraordinary. Since BJP has left the field open in Kashmir, where in all likelihood it has opted out of the contest, making way for NC, PDP and Congress parties to take wings. Apni Party is contesting on two of the three seats – Srinagar and Anantnag, People’s Conference is fighting it against NC, PDP and Engineer Rashid in Baramulla constituency. So, a marked difference has come about on the political landscape even before the first vote is cast. This makes the electoral contest in Jammu region very, very important . It was very difficult to imagine BJP not contesting on three of the Valley seats , particularly when the whole focus and theme of its current campaign is transformation of Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370. It is curious move, but it is certain that party’s leadership must have thought something before deciding not to contest three prestigious Lok Sabha seats. The party had contested all the three seats in the Valley in 2019. It needs to be analyzed why the party is playing a different political cards this time.
Against this backdrop , Jammu region’s two Lok Sabha seats will be very critical for BJP to re-establish its narrative on the abrogation of Article 370. The victory on these two seats can help it compensate for its absence from the contest on three Valley seats. This, politically speaking, will be a verdict from the whole of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, because the region cannot be separated from the geography and demography of the union Territory. And as the voting percentage of the past elections has shown is higher in Jammu region since 1989 Lok Sabha polls, it will give a currency to BJP to claim its success in the political narrative driven by the abrogation of the constitutional provision. It had adopted the abolition of the Article 370 as a matter of faith. This faith, it is expecting would be vindicated in Jammu and Udhampur seats, thus making the percentage in the Valley seats irrelevant. There are still fears that Valley’s polling percentage may not be as high as that of Jammu region. In Udhampur constituency , the campaign by DPAP chairman Ghulam Nabi Azad is also serving as a motivation for the voters to vote in large numbers. Azad’s role needs to be acknowledged, no matter what the outcome will be at the end of the day. DPAP has fielded Ghulam Mohammad Saroori and Azad is campaigning quite vigorously. That has the potential to change scene of the electoral battle. In short, key to the national narrative is with Jammu region.